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Eduardo Gerk, chairman of Pré-Sal Petróleo, has announced during the 2nd Pré-Sal Petróleo Technical Forum that participations for the Federal Government, state and city governments, arising out of 17 Production Sharing Agreements, shall reach R$ 2.33 trillion until 2055, when all agreement will have completed 35 years. Calculations account for all 14 production sharing agreements already signed by the company and three more that will be entered into in 2020.
According to Gerk, this number represents "an extrapolation" made by the study, beyond its main focus, which is the period between 2020 and 2032, when government participations will reach R$ 1 trillion, measured in detail based on some market premises. The number represents the sum of R$ 424 billion to be collected with the commercialization of oil belonging to the Federal Government in sharing agreements, R$ 349 billion in royalties payable to the Federal Government, states and municipalities and R$ 227 billion in federal taxes, basically, Income Tax and Social Contribution on Net Profit.
"This is a very responsible study, and even conservative in some aspects, made by a team that is perhaps the most skilled in the subject", he said. Economic calculations were made based on prices at US$ 60 per barrel and US$ 5 per million Btu of natural gas, at a fixed currency rate of R$ 4 on the dollar.
Amounts in Reais are based on an oil production from production sharing agreements which, starting at 80 thousand barrels a day in 2020, to 3.89 million barrels a day in 2032, one million barrels higher than the entire Brazilian daily production in September 2019, last number available from the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) statistics. The Federal Government''s oil share shall be 10 thousand barrels a day the next year, reaching up to 1.22 million barrels/day on 2032. "This matches the production of a major oil company", emphasized Gerk.
In order to reach the R$ 424 billion forecasted in the study, annual revenue of oil commercialization for the Federal Government to be carried out by Pré-Sal Petróleo shall increase from R$ 600 million in 2020 to R$ 101.8 billion in 2031, and R$ 110 billion in 2032. The study does not consider any increases to be applied at the 7th and 8th Production Sharing Rounds, to be carried out until 2021, nor areas that received no bids at the Surplus Onerous Assignment Round (Sépia and Atapu) and that the government promised to negotiate the next year.
PPSA''s work estimated that total investments over the period shall amount to R$ 560 billion, with R$ 196 billion divided among 28 FPSO-type rigs, R$ 196 billion at the drilling of 474 wells and R$ 168 billion in submarine facilities.
Chief Executive Officer of Pré-Sal Petróleo during a panel at the 2nd Technical Forum
Credit: Guarim de Lorena